Syria Without Sanctions: A Primer
Four key sectors for international support
President Trump has reshaped Syria’s potential future in just 48 hours. While in Riyadh on May 13, Trump announced he would end all American sanctions on Syria. He also met with President Shara’a, giving a glowing review of the Syria’s long-time insurgent leader and placing the United States in clear support of the new government in Damascus. Secretary of State Marco Rubio followed this by meeting the Syrian and Turkish foreign ministers in Ankara on May 15. It will, of course, take some time for the various American sanctions to be removed. The process will likely begin next week, but potentially require months of congressional and bureaucratic work to lift them all. However, this is America’s first clear policy position on Syria in years, and even as the sanctions are still being lifted, this clarity will help European and Arab countries begin their own process of lifting sanctions and investing.
Government agencies, INGOs, and businesses will now be looking to restart work in a country that is completely broken. Where should the international community’s limited resources be focused first? Here I propose, in no particular order, four sectors which could have big impacts on economic and social stability with limited investment. These proposals are drawn from six weeks of field work across western Syria since December 8.
Agriculture rehabilitation
The agriculture sector is one of, if not the largest economic sectors in Syria. Whether pastures for livestock or growing staple crops, this entire sector is in dire need of rehabilitation, particularly regarding water access. INGOs and westerns countries have been implementing projects addressing this issue in northeast Syria for several years already. Now with access to the rest of Syria and the impending removal of sanctions, these projects must be scaled up and expanded to western Syria.
Each region faces its own unique agricultural problem. Projects in the drought-stricken northeast have focused on efficient irrigation and water management. But in the wetter western Syria, communities have expressed a need for simpler water collection infrastructure that would allow them to take advantage of their plentiful rainfall. In the massive farming belt of northern Hama and southern Idlib, unregulated well drilling risks permanently damaging the water table. Improving irrigation and water distribution (such as repairing the network of canals and containment pools in the al-Ghab Plains) will help alleviate the pressure on local farmers. All of this requires functioning water pumps. Right now, many farmers are relying on personal solar panel banks to power their own wells. Creating a more efficient, centralized power grid for irrigation will help ease this burden as well.
Lastly, there are simple, cost effective ways to address both the harmful impact of sewage runoff and water shortages in rural communities. Low-tech (as in, nearly zero-power) waste water treatment ponds can be used to collect and treat smaller towns’ sewage. Once treated, this water can then be used to irrigate the surrounding farmland (depending on the level of treatment the water will either be appropriate for livestock grazing or for human crops). Such systems are widely used in developing countries already, and should be immediately implemented in Syria.
Internet and Electricity
Rebuilding the country’s power grid is an obvious priority for a decades-long crisis that has plagued every corner of Syria. However, there are two specific impacts repairing the power grid could have that are particularly important. First, installing streetlights throughout urban centers to cut down on crime and boost local economies. This has been done at a very small scale by various UNDP-funded programs throughout the war - almost exclusively in Alawite and Christian towns - but a scaled up project that sees solar or otherwise streetlights installed across all major cities will have a significant impact, increasing safety and extending commercial hours past sunset.
Secondly, an improved power grid will naturally support improved internet infrastructure. Many educated Syrians who have not found jobs inside Syria rely on remote tech gigs for their livelihoods. Without stable electricity at home, these remote workers are forced to find cafes with semi-reliable power and internet. Improving both of these will open the door to more remote work for Syrians, which will provide some small relief for the massive employment crisis facing the country.
Technical training for skilled labor
This employment crisis will be one of the more complex and long-term problems to resolve. While many unemployed Syrians have university degrees and could be quickly hired should foreign companies begin opening new businesses, many of the men who fought for both the regime and opposition lost out on a university education. Establishing new trade schools and providing technical trainings for these men will help to quickly build a skilled labor pool for the inevitable growth of Syria’s manufacturing and construction sector.
These programs can also serve as a part of broader Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) approaches. As one veteran HTS fighter who returned to civilian life after December 8 told me in February, “maybe about 30% of opposition fighters in Idlib want to become civilians like me, but until there are jobs available they will stay in the army.” Similarly, many Alawite activists have made the point that if the tens of thousands of newly unemployed ex-regime security members were able to find new civilian work, it would greatly reduce the risk of them joining anti-Damascus insurgent groups while the new income streams would ease social tensions in the coast.
The use of employment opportunities as a counter-terrorism/counter-violence tool is well known in Syria. In Raqqa, finding work for the “ISIS wives” released from al-Hol Camp in recent years has been a critical part of the reintegration and deradicalization process (I spent several days with local NGOs working on this problem in Raqqa in September), while ensuring young men in Deir Ez Zor had access to jobs was an important factor in mitigating ISIS recruitment. Turning these small-scale, local initiatives into larger, regional programs will be key for quickly preventing further violence and social unrest.
Youth support
Similarly, youth programs are critical for ensuring the next generations of Syrians are able to receive the psychological and educational support they need after a decade and a half of war. Again, drawing from the local programs in Raqqa, NGO workers there found that the children released from al-Hol required extra curricular activities and special attention to help them re-integrate into their new communities and deradicalize them from the natural indoctrination that comes with living in al-Hol. Children in northwest Syria in particular, and now those children who survived the March 6 coastal massacres, likewise need significant psychological support.